Bachelor's in Nursing Forecasting Tools

The BSN Forecasting Tool was created for the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the American Organization of Nurse Executives. It is a simple Excel-based model that estimates the future supply of baccalaureate and non-baccalaureate nurses based on current data on the supply of nurses and nurse graduations.

National Model Excel BSN Forecast Tool

State Model Excel BSN Forecast Tool

Data sources:

The model was based on data from the American Community Survey (number of employed RNs total, number of employed RNs with a bachelor’s or higher degree, age distribution of nurses), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (number of diploma and associate degree graduates), American Association of Colleges of Nursing (number of BSN and MSN graduates, number of RN-to-BSN graduates), and data from the California Board of Registered Nursing (age distribution of graduates).

National model: 

Data in the pink cells is from the above-named sources and cannot be edited. Data in the green cells can be edited to assess the impact of new data, or the potential effects of changes in graduation and other workforce trends.

State model:

Data in the pink cells is from the national data sources described above and cannot be edited. Data in the blue and green cells can be edited. The blue cells should be used for current state-level data. The green cells should be used for hypothetical data to test other scenarios (“Alternative model”).

Please send updated data, suggestions, and comments to: Joanne Spetz, joanne.spetz@ucsf.edu.